Difference between revisions of "APR 26"

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(Created page with "==29: APR 26== ===Assigned=== :*Dennett, What is Free Will? 6 minute video [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joCOWaaTj4A] :*Greg Caruso and Daniel Dennett, "Just Deserts" [ht...")
 
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==29: APR 26==
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==25. APR 26==
  
===Assigned===
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===Assigned Work===
  
:*Dennett, What is Free Will? 6 minute video [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joCOWaaTj4A]
+
:*Montgomery, David. Chapter 4: "Graveyards of Civilizations" (pp. 49-81) (32)
:*Greg Caruso and Daniel Dennett, "Just Deserts" [https://aeon.co/essays/on-free-will-daniel-dennett-and-gregg-caruso-go-head-to-head].
+
:*Montgomery, David. Chapter 10: "Life Span of Civilizations" (pp. 233-246) (13)
  
===Dennett, What is Free Will?===
+
===Final Assignment: "My Philosophy of Food" paper ===
  
:*Interviewer poses the question, “If everything is determined, how can we have free will?
+
:*This 7-9 page paper is a statement of your "Philosophy of Food," which represents your current views on major questions addressed by the course.  You should develop the paper by spending some time paging through the course readings, wiki notes, and your own notesFor each section of the course, identify information and conclusions that you feel have influenced your thinking about foodNot everything in the course will meet this standard, but you should develop a set of conclusions from your review of the course that you can identify withSometimes our "food slogans" will help with this as they are meant to encapsulate a general point based on the readingsOnce you collect this information, try to integrate it'''What are the general lessons from the course that inform your view of the nature of food, the challenges of eating well, and the food values that you want to advocate going forward in your life?'''
:*Dennett: Free will isn’t just hard to reconcile with determinism, but also indeterminism[If the universe is “indeterminate” that still doesn’t help us to think about being the origin of our actionsIndeterminacy is randomness.]  We want to be the one’s determining our actions.
 
::*History of the question: People look to physics to think about FW, but should be thinking about biology. Key: FW is a biological level phenomenon. [That means it exists at the level of the organism and its intentions, not the cellular or physical level.]
 
::*”Our actions are determined by not inevitable.”  Inevitable mean “unavoidable”.  But we have gotten really good at “avoiding.”  Anticipation, corrective measures.
 
::*”You can change what you thought the future was going to be, into something else. [I think this sounds puzzling if you don’t remember that we have causal agency.  Determinism doesn’t mean we are like a billiard ball on a pool table, only subject to forces.]
 
::*Physics level vs. Biological level.   
 
::*”Free will worth wanting is compatible
 
::*”We also need to give up absolute blame and responsibility, but there is still responsibility“We are determined” to control our future and hold each other accountable for doing that.
 
  
===Caruso & Dennett, "Just Deserts"===
+
:*The rubric for this paper is roughly the same as we have been using.  Good writing, good use of content from the course, and, in this case a kind of "synthesis" or "putting together" of that content into general points that address the question above.  This not an argument paper, but you should indicate through your writing why you have chosen the lessons you did.  Above all, try to make this a statement that reflects your actual convictions about the main question above.
  
:*This dialogue allows you to see how a moral responsibility sceptic (Caruso) and a compatibilist (Dennett) might disagree about moral responsibility.  Dennett defends a pretty strong view of moral responsibility but doesn’t think he’s a retributivist.  Caruso defends a strong skeptical view of moral responsibility and thinks Dennett is still hanging on to retributivism.
+
:*You must include a brief assessment 1-2 pages of Montgomery’s argument from our last unit and how it will or will not affect your thinking about the nature of food.
  
:*Caruso: What we do and the way we are is ''ultimately'' the result of factors beyond our control. [No Ultimate Resp. thesis - NUR]
+
===Montgomery, Dirt, Chapter 4, "Graveyards of Empires"===
:*Dennett: [Seems to defend "mitigated free will" but instead of the humunculus, we are in “control” by virtue of the natural developments that produce an NCA.]  Some people have mental disabilities that makes them not responsible, but normal people are morally responsibility and deserve praise or blame.  Need to distinguish between causation and control.  There are causal chains that turned you into an autonomous, self-controlling agent.  [e.g. A normal person with a normal upbringing.  The "normally competent agent" - NCA]
 
  
:*Caruso: No problem with NCA, who is "responsive to reasons".  NCAs are autonomous and have control.  But they don't possess the characteristics that would justify "basic desert" responsibility. People don't ''deserve'' to have "something bad happen to them just because they have knowingly done wrong". Totally "backward looking".  Retributivism overlaps with consequentialism (Punishing people might reduce harms and therefor achieve utilitarian ends) but the distinctive difference is that retributivist thinks punishment is justified in itself, by desert. I don't because of NUR. There may be "forward looking" reasons to keep certain systems of punishment and reward, like "incapacitating, rehabilitating and deterring offenders" [what we've been calling "penalties and interventions"]
+
:*'''Thesis''': Soil degradation doesn't directly cause declines in civilization, but makes civilizations more vulnerable to "hostile neighbors, internal sociopolitical disruption, and harsh winters or droughts."
 +
:*Tikal (Guatamala) - Meso-American (Mayan, in this case) civilization reclaimed by the jungle. 1840s re-discovery. (returns to this at the end).
  
:*Dennett: I too reject retributivism, along views of free will [libertarian] that support it. [This will be a major point of dispute between them.] But there is a "backward looking" justification for punishment: [read example of promise breaking]. "deserving of negative consequences"This is something autonomous people accept as a condition of political freedom. Analogy of sports penalties. They can be deserved. Argument against NUR: So what?  We grow into our autonomy.
+
:*Ancient Greece
 +
::*(In this section, he implies that we tell "false histories" of ancient agriculturalists when we imagine that they took care of their soil.)
 +
::*As land degraded, needed more slaves to feed owners. Sporadic use of fertilizersHills around Athens bare by 570 BC (before Plato).
 +
::*Evidence of knowledge of erosion (from hillsides) as public policy, but failure to address it. (Recall Diamond’s point in ''Collapse'')
 +
::*By time of Peloponnesian War (431-404), Egypt & Sicily provide 1/3 to 3/4 of food to Greece.
 +
::*(Comments by Plato and Aristotle on soil degradation.). Imagine Greece with oak forests and more grasslands15” of soil lost from Argolid uplands, 3’ from lowland slopes — 2300 to 1600 bc. Note: the ability to reconstruct ancient soil patterns is very recent. 
 +
::*Greeks repeat pattern of Mesopotamia -- intensified cultivation as population grows.  Plow a significant step.  p. 54: 1,000 year cycle of soil erosion / pop density decline.
 +
::*Evidence of movement from small diversified farming to large plantations with fewer crops.
 +
::*We associate Greece with olive trees and grapes, but that's partly because they do well in the thin rocky soil left from millennia of soil erosion.
  
:*Caruso: [Are you sure you're not a retributivist, DD?] Isn't "deserving negative consequences" retributivism? The consequentialist benefits of punishment don't require "desert" [but just MR as "accountability" -- You did it, maybe on purpose...]There are good [forward looking] reasons to keep penalties[References the "moral luck" literature from Nagel.] Luck doesn't "even out", SES affects brain development, educational inequalities....[In a word, lucky privileged people.]
+
:*Rome
 +
::*146bc, conquest of Corinth, incorporate of Greece into Empire
 +
::*Research of Vita-Finzi, mid-60s: Was soil erosion (in Libya) from climate change or mismanagement?  Found two major periods of hillside erosion: one ancient,attributable to climate, the other dated to late Roman era. Climate also involved when you mismanage soil because land is more vulnerable to climate variation. (Note: In light of climate change, food security (or price stability) will become a greater concern.)
 +
::*Roughly 5,000 to 4,000 bc.: agriculture introduced to Italian pennisula by immigrants.
 +
::*Significance of Bronze Age (2,000bc to 800bc) and Iron Age (500 bc on):  depth of plowing and deforestation. 
 +
::*500bc -- highpoint of productivity - 1-5 acres / family.  "farmers" had social status. Family names often associated with agriculture — Cicero “Chick peas”
 +
::*Erosion in south (Campagna) also produced malaria from pooling of water on eroded land.
 +
::*Cato's ''De Agri Cultura'' - p.59  Cato brought plump figs from Carthage to the Senate floor, arguing that Carthage was a threat to Rome because of its food productivityEnded all his speeches with "Carthage must be destroyed." Third Punic War took care of that. Roman model become colonial system of agriculture around N. Africa and Sicily. Pliny the Elder (23-79ad)
 +
::*Varo, ''De re Rustica'', 117bc, focused on intensive high yield ag for the times.
 +
::*Like Greece, Romans in Empire Period relied heavily on slaves to feed them.
  
:*Dennett: I'm using the "every day" sense of "deserve"I want to avoid "case by case" considerations of MR. You are "entitled" to the praise you get from good things and the "criticism, shame, and blame" from breaking the lawI'm still for criminal justice reform -- shorter sentences, no death penalty, rehab and reinstatement.
+
:*Evidence of soil mismanagement in Roman Republic and Empire.
 +
::*Difference in Roman case: extensive knowledge of husbandry.  1960s studies of erosion around Rome: 1" every 1,000 years before the Via Cassia was built, 1"per 200 years after.
 +
::*Dramatic examples in Ostia and Ravenna.  Silting pushed these ancient coastal cities away from the sea.   
 +
::*substory: emergence of the latifundia system of agriculture in 2nd cent bc due, in part to post-war availability of cheap land, lots of slaves.  63
 +
::*by 300 ad, productivity of central Italy dramatically declined(Campagna and sicily currently desertifying).
 +
::*Empire needed to annex parts of N. Africa to secure food.  200,000 tons of grain a year from Egypt and N. Africa to feed 1 million Romans.  Mid-80s UNESCO research moved us away from climate explanation for decline.   
 +
::*66: early 20th thesis (1916 - Columbia U prof Vladimir Simkhovitch) that agricultural policy contributed to decline of Roman Empire.  Farm debt a problem then and now.
  
:*Caruso: It doesn't help to appeal to the everyday sense, since that includes retributivist beliefs -- 1. backward-looking; 2. just deserts, and ''that's what we are trying to figure out'' (e.g. you're begging the question)If you say that the murderer deserves to go to prison for "a very long time" irrespective of future consequences, you are a retributivist.  [ Think "strike back".] Example of Einstein. We can "attribute" things to Einstein....  You do offer a "forward looking justification for backward looking MR" [Roughly, we don't get the benefits of a stable society without punishing people in the "moral desert" sense.]  But that's an empirical question; it's not justified by "moral desert" but only if the consequences follow.
+
:*Egypt
 +
::*30bc - Egypt becomes a colonial food source. after Cleopatra dies. Emperor Augustus (1st cent ad) forbade senators and nobles from entering Egypt due to fear of its ag power.67  
 +
::*story of 19th American, George Perkins March, research in Italy on soil erosionearly hypothesis of Roman land misuse. '''land doesn't always recover'''.
  
:*Dennett: Non-retributive punishment (visiting negative consequences on people ''because they deserve it'') is justified in part by the need to promote "respect for the law" [connect to Henrich] Cites Hobbes.   
+
:*North Africa - Mideast
 +
::*Lowdermilk in Tunisia, Algieria.  Then on to Levant.  Lebanon and Israel.   
  
:*Caruso: [a bit frustrated] You say you're baffled that I don't see that you are not a retributivist, but you said that earlier that there are "backward looking" justifications for punishment based on desert.  But when you elaborate that, it's all about forward looking justifications[We're better off punishing.] Cites the "public health argument" from his bookFocusing on backward looking punishment keeps us from looking at the social causes of crimeObama quote[Note connection with Cavadino: We're looking at neo-liberal ideology....]. Claims society won't fall apart in the Hobbesian sense.
+
:*Back to Meso-America, Tikal, and the Mayan case
 +
::*Maize domestication about 2000bcgreatest erosion around 600-900ad, along with evidence steep population decline.  from 1million in 3rd c. ad. to 1/2 that 200 years later.
 +
::*mechanisms: slash and burn agriculturefertility declinesbut worked at low population levels.   
 +
::*lots of studies of silting and erosion. p. 75ff.
  
===Small Group Discussion: Assessing the Caruso - Dennett discussion===
+
:*General points:
:*Here some questions from the discussion that it might be helpful for you to sort out your thinking about:
+
:::*Soil degradation characteristic of major civilizations. Usually the result of over-exploitation of resources in the face of population growth.
::*If you advocate for “negative consequences” are you therefore a “retributivist” or does it just mean that you think NCAs still deserve blame and negative consequences are an expression of that?  
+
:::*Soil degradation not the sole cause of civilization decline, but it "leaves societies vulnerable to hostile neighbors, internal sociopolitical disruption, and harsh winters or droughts"
::*Is there a "backward looking" justification for punishment apart from forward looking consequences (preventing recidivism)?
+
:::*Reflected in commitments to slavery, expansion, and exploitation of neighbors.
 +
:::*Happens regardless of knowledge of good practices.  
 +
:::*Often in connection with development of a food export industry.
 +
::*Civilizations which left records often assigned blame to climate change, disappearance of water sources.  (Remarkable exceptions include famous intellectuals like Pliny the Elder, Tertulian, Plato, Aristotle.)
  
===Dennett's Naturalist view in ''Freedom Evolves''===
+
===Montgomery, Chapter 10: Life Span of Civilizations===
  
:*Our folk psychological idea of Free will.  The homunculus or soul or real self is somehow independent of influences. In philosophy, this is "Libertarian Free Will".  Not well supported.
+
:*Framing the soil / civilization argument in broadest terms:
::*Examples of decision making for us to pay attention toMake a decision in response to the following prompts. 1. We're going to have a quiz todayPlease go to the form. and 2. I've bought you all tickets to Hawaii.  We're leaving at 5pm.  Meet me at the airportDid the decisions feel free? Did you feel absolutely free of influences or did you feel like you understood completely how to evaluate these requests?
+
::*Estimates of the carrying capacity of the earthCatholic Bishops say 40 billion (is that true?!)Might get to 15 billion "if we share the planet with nothing else" some biologists think we are over the limit.   
::*Rethinking your concept of free will doesn't require you to deny anything about your "agency" - Your actual capabilities for decision making, reasoning, understanding the world, etcIn fact, it helps to have evidence of this to challenge your folk psychology.  
+
::*Both capitalists and marxists theorize land as infinitely productive or infinitely substitutableGeneral endorsement of effectiveness of markets, but he points out that resource depletion is not adequately theorized or accounted for in practice.  
  
:*'''The Standard Argument for Incompatibilism''' that our Folk Psychology encourages(Should we resist?)
+
:*Lifespan of civilization measurable in relation bt initial soil and rate of erosionEstimates of rate: 1" in 1,000yr vs. 40 years.
::*If Determinism is true, everything is inevitable. (recall physics consult)
+
::*238: We can't move anymore.  Estimate of hectares per person.  Explores physical and genetic limits on productivity.  Key globalization point:  There's not much left to cultivate.  Nice analysis about how large vs. small societies respond to problems.   
::*If everything is inevitable, the future has no real possibilities(No "open futures")
+
::*Crop yields are flat since the 70s. More nitrogen needed to maintain current levels.
::*If everything is inevitable, you can't blame someone for not doing otherwise than they did. (No "alternative possibilities.")
+
::*20th cent food production doubled by increased use of  Nitrogen fertilizers 7x and 3.5x increase in Phosphorus.
::*If you can't blame someone for their actions, then there is no MR and retributive punishment is unjust.
 
  
:*If you are like most people, you will not accept this argument. And you shouldn't. The question is, who has a better solution?  Naturalists suggest that our folk psychology confusing us about the consequences of determinism, maybe because it wasn't designed for these kinds of questions.  So their solution is to give an analysis of the implications of determinism that makes room for free will and to show how "freedom and free willing" might arise from nature.  (If this seems like a stretch, philosophers have been here before. Mind from matter? Surely, you jest!)
+
:*Agrarian approach: Wendell Berry. Advocates “adaptation of economic activity to capacity of land to sustain that activity.” 240
  
::*Digressive note: It doesn't really help to imagine an indeterministic world to solve the problem.  There would be no prediction in a world without (causal) regularities.  It would at least be a very annoying world, and not obviously "free."
+
:*241: Agro-ecology: Need to treat soil as a "locally adapted biological system rather than a chemical system"
  
:*'''Rethinking Determinism'''.  Here are three key challenges to the standard argument for incompatibilism (above) from naturalists:
+
:*241: not just about organic, but about enriching soil. mentions California’s monoculture organic"unglobalization of ag" as oil becomes expensiveexample of 19th cent. Paris use of horse shit to fertilize fields. (urban farming -- look up new examples [https://fleetfarming.com])
::*1. '''Determinism doesn't make things inevitable.'''
 
::*2. There are real present and future possibilities in a determinist world, just not the "open futures" of folk psychology.  
 
::*3. Freedom evolved in us in nature.   
 
:*In other words, the naturalist thinks free will and freedom (and some version of responsibility, if not punishment) are possible in a deterministic world with no "open futures".  As we will see, part of the strategy is to show just how complicated we are, to be creatures who engage in inquiry and use knowledge to avoid back outcomes and create good ones. So, we might be "Determined (by nature) to improve the future!".
 
:*Where does all that improvement show up?  In culture, but only if things go right (remember Rapa Nui!).  As we know from our studies this semester, "going right" in culture means benefiting from cooperation and acquiring cultural "packages" of mental adaptations that address the basic dilemmas of social creatures like us.  Ultimately, surviving and thriving.
 
  
:*So that's where we're headed. Now let's look at the naturalist's analysis in a little detail. 
+
:*connections between climate change, Syrian civil war, ISIS and refugee crisis. [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/03/150302-syria-war-climate-change-drought/]
 
 
:*'''1. Determinism doesn't make things inevitable.'''
 
::*Artificial Life research models how design can emerge from a set of artificially defined "creatures" moving in a completely deterministic manner, as in a video game. (Nerdy digression: Artificial life models can create "touring machines," which means they can solve computational problems.)  Some creatures could develop "avoidance capabilities". '''The birth of "evitability"!'''  You could imagine the computer programmers are acting as "hacker gods" to add design (they don't have to), but imagine instead that the creatures develope R&D capabilities, as we have.  Not so implausible that nature designed us to be good "avoiders".  We also have circuits for rewards and searching! 
 
::*In evolutionary theory, we describe the emergence of multi-cellular organisms as solving problems of parasitic genes and achieving a stable organism that persists....  Nature is full of "evitability" -- ways organisms avoid harm.
 
 
 
:*'''2. There are real present and future possibilities in a determinist world''', just not the "open futures" of folk psychology.
 
::*If something can be "determined to change" then it has, in a sense, an "open future." (Still not the folk psychological one exactly.)  In us, meta-cognitive and social processes feed into our decision making, allowing us to re-evaluate the "weights" we give to different possibilities. 
 
::*The way we actually think about possibility ''when we are engaged in inquiry'' is compatible with determinism.  Analysis of: "I could have made that putt."  Makes sense if you mean "If the world hade been slightly different.  In inquiry, and with our big brains, we imagine possible worlds in which the wind didn't blow or I wasn't thinking about my taxes while making the putt.  But it doesn't make sense to say, "No, I mean that I could have made the putt in this world!", because you didn't.
 
::*We create real possibilities in the present and future by using reason to replay scenarios and approach them differently.  Examples: Improving your social skills, academic skills.  If it feels like your "in charge", well, you are.  All of these causal forces intersect with you and you happen to have a brain.
 
 
 
:*'''3. Freedom evolved in us in nature.''' 
 
::*If freedom means avoiding bad outcomes and having lots of real possibilities in your life, then it might be possible to account for that in a deterministic world.
 
::*The evolution of freedom happens through the evolution of the socially evolved behaviors and structures we've been studying.  (Dennett's research based isn't as up to date as ours!) Cooperation, culture, accumulated knowledge, complex societies supporting lots and lots of education provide us more freedom than our ancestors.
 
::*Obvious example: Without vaccines we would be less free.
 
::*Contrast with traditional concept of free will: binary, metaphysically opaque. Evolved freedom admits of degrees.  Lots of potential implications for responsibility and punishment. 
 
::*Implication: We are not all equally free.  Freedom is powerful and fragile.
 
::*Implication: You can hold normal people responsible for their behavior, but there's no justification of absolute responsibility here.  You can hold people responsible because they are designed to be responsible.
 

Latest revision as of 18:31, 26 April 2023

25. APR 26

Assigned Work

  • Montgomery, David. Chapter 4: "Graveyards of Civilizations" (pp. 49-81) (32)
  • Montgomery, David. Chapter 10: "Life Span of Civilizations" (pp. 233-246) (13)

Final Assignment: "My Philosophy of Food" paper

  • This 7-9 page paper is a statement of your "Philosophy of Food," which represents your current views on major questions addressed by the course. You should develop the paper by spending some time paging through the course readings, wiki notes, and your own notes. For each section of the course, identify information and conclusions that you feel have influenced your thinking about food. Not everything in the course will meet this standard, but you should develop a set of conclusions from your review of the course that you can identify with. Sometimes our "food slogans" will help with this as they are meant to encapsulate a general point based on the readings. Once you collect this information, try to integrate it. What are the general lessons from the course that inform your view of the nature of food, the challenges of eating well, and the food values that you want to advocate going forward in your life?
  • The rubric for this paper is roughly the same as we have been using. Good writing, good use of content from the course, and, in this case a kind of "synthesis" or "putting together" of that content into general points that address the question above. This not an argument paper, but you should indicate through your writing why you have chosen the lessons you did. Above all, try to make this a statement that reflects your actual convictions about the main question above.
  • You must include a brief assessment 1-2 pages of Montgomery’s argument from our last unit and how it will or will not affect your thinking about the nature of food.

Montgomery, Dirt, Chapter 4, "Graveyards of Empires"

  • Thesis: Soil degradation doesn't directly cause declines in civilization, but makes civilizations more vulnerable to "hostile neighbors, internal sociopolitical disruption, and harsh winters or droughts."
  • Tikal (Guatamala) - Meso-American (Mayan, in this case) civilization reclaimed by the jungle. 1840s re-discovery. (returns to this at the end).
  • Ancient Greece
  • (In this section, he implies that we tell "false histories" of ancient agriculturalists when we imagine that they took care of their soil.)
  • As land degraded, needed more slaves to feed owners. Sporadic use of fertilizers. Hills around Athens bare by 570 BC (before Plato).
  • Evidence of knowledge of erosion (from hillsides) as public policy, but failure to address it. (Recall Diamond’s point in Collapse)
  • By time of Peloponnesian War (431-404), Egypt & Sicily provide 1/3 to 3/4 of food to Greece.
  • (Comments by Plato and Aristotle on soil degradation.). Imagine Greece with oak forests and more grasslands. 15” of soil lost from Argolid uplands, 3’ from lowland slopes — 2300 to 1600 bc. Note: the ability to reconstruct ancient soil patterns is very recent.
  • Greeks repeat pattern of Mesopotamia -- intensified cultivation as population grows. Plow a significant step. p. 54: 1,000 year cycle of soil erosion / pop density decline.
  • Evidence of movement from small diversified farming to large plantations with fewer crops.
  • We associate Greece with olive trees and grapes, but that's partly because they do well in the thin rocky soil left from millennia of soil erosion.
  • Rome
  • 146bc, conquest of Corinth, incorporate of Greece into Empire
  • Research of Vita-Finzi, mid-60s: Was soil erosion (in Libya) from climate change or mismanagement? Found two major periods of hillside erosion: one ancient,attributable to climate, the other dated to late Roman era. Climate also involved when you mismanage soil because land is more vulnerable to climate variation. (Note: In light of climate change, food security (or price stability) will become a greater concern.)
  • Roughly 5,000 to 4,000 bc.: agriculture introduced to Italian pennisula by immigrants.
  • Significance of Bronze Age (2,000bc to 800bc) and Iron Age (500 bc on): depth of plowing and deforestation.
  • 500bc -- highpoint of productivity - 1-5 acres / family. "farmers" had social status. Family names often associated with agriculture — Cicero “Chick peas”
  • Erosion in south (Campagna) also produced malaria from pooling of water on eroded land.
  • Cato's De Agri Cultura - p.59 Cato brought plump figs from Carthage to the Senate floor, arguing that Carthage was a threat to Rome because of its food productivity. Ended all his speeches with "Carthage must be destroyed." Third Punic War took care of that. Roman model become colonial system of agriculture around N. Africa and Sicily. Pliny the Elder (23-79ad)
  • Varo, De re Rustica, 117bc, focused on intensive high yield ag for the times.
  • Like Greece, Romans in Empire Period relied heavily on slaves to feed them.
  • Evidence of soil mismanagement in Roman Republic and Empire.
  • Difference in Roman case: extensive knowledge of husbandry. 1960s studies of erosion around Rome: 1" every 1,000 years before the Via Cassia was built, 1"per 200 years after.
  • Dramatic examples in Ostia and Ravenna. Silting pushed these ancient coastal cities away from the sea.
  • substory: emergence of the latifundia system of agriculture in 2nd cent bc due, in part to post-war availability of cheap land, lots of slaves. 63
  • by 300 ad, productivity of central Italy dramatically declined. (Campagna and sicily currently desertifying).
  • Empire needed to annex parts of N. Africa to secure food. 200,000 tons of grain a year from Egypt and N. Africa to feed 1 million Romans. Mid-80s UNESCO research moved us away from climate explanation for decline.
  • 66: early 20th thesis (1916 - Columbia U prof Vladimir Simkhovitch) that agricultural policy contributed to decline of Roman Empire. Farm debt a problem then and now.
  • Egypt
  • 30bc - Egypt becomes a colonial food source. after Cleopatra dies. Emperor Augustus (1st cent ad) forbade senators and nobles from entering Egypt due to fear of its ag power.67
  • story of 19th American, George Perkins March, research in Italy on soil erosion. early hypothesis of Roman land misuse. land doesn't always recover.
  • North Africa - Mideast
  • Lowdermilk in Tunisia, Algieria. Then on to Levant. Lebanon and Israel.
  • Back to Meso-America, Tikal, and the Mayan case
  • Maize domestication about 2000bc. greatest erosion around 600-900ad, along with evidence steep population decline. from 1million in 3rd c. ad. to 1/2 that 200 years later.
  • mechanisms: slash and burn agriculture. fertility declines. but worked at low population levels.
  • lots of studies of silting and erosion. p. 75ff.
  • General points:
  • Soil degradation characteristic of major civilizations. Usually the result of over-exploitation of resources in the face of population growth.
  • Soil degradation not the sole cause of civilization decline, but it "leaves societies vulnerable to hostile neighbors, internal sociopolitical disruption, and harsh winters or droughts"
  • Reflected in commitments to slavery, expansion, and exploitation of neighbors.
  • Happens regardless of knowledge of good practices.
  • Often in connection with development of a food export industry.
  • Civilizations which left records often assigned blame to climate change, disappearance of water sources. (Remarkable exceptions include famous intellectuals like Pliny the Elder, Tertulian, Plato, Aristotle.)

Montgomery, Chapter 10: Life Span of Civilizations

  • Framing the soil / civilization argument in broadest terms:
  • Estimates of the carrying capacity of the earth: Catholic Bishops say 40 billion (is that true?!). Might get to 15 billion "if we share the planet with nothing else" some biologists think we are over the limit.
  • Both capitalists and marxists theorize land as infinitely productive or infinitely substitutable. General endorsement of effectiveness of markets, but he points out that resource depletion is not adequately theorized or accounted for in practice.
  • Lifespan of civilization measurable in relation bt initial soil and rate of erosion. Estimates of rate: 1" in 1,000yr vs. 40 years.
  • 238: We can't move anymore. Estimate of hectares per person. Explores physical and genetic limits on productivity. Key globalization point: There's not much left to cultivate. Nice analysis about how large vs. small societies respond to problems.
  • Crop yields are flat since the 70s. More nitrogen needed to maintain current levels.
  • 20th cent food production doubled by increased use of Nitrogen fertilizers 7x and 3.5x increase in Phosphorus.
  • Agrarian approach: Wendell Berry. Advocates “adaptation of economic activity to capacity of land to sustain that activity.” 240
  • 241: Agro-ecology: Need to treat soil as a "locally adapted biological system rather than a chemical system"
  • 241: not just about organic, but about enriching soil. mentions California’s monoculture organic. "unglobalization of ag" as oil becomes expensive. example of 19th cent. Paris use of horse shit to fertilize fields. (urban farming -- look up new examples [1])
  • connections between climate change, Syrian civil war, ISIS and refugee crisis. [2]