Critical Thinking Study Question Collaboration Page
Contents
- 1 Critical Thinking Study Question Collaboration
- 1.1 Chapter 1: Thinking about Thinking
- 1.1.1 What are some of the opportunities and obstacles of trying to become a better critical thinking in the information age?
- 1.1.2 How has the progress of research and "knowledge work" contributed to and complicated the pursuit of truth?
- 1.1.3 What is epistemology? What are some of the values and limitations of logic in becoming a better thinker? What is the relationship between logic and good thinking?
- 1.1.4 What does it mean to make your thought an object of thought?
- 1.1.5 How can we describe thinking in ways that seem compatible with what we are learning from research on cognition and social conflict?
- 1.1.6 What is a persona and how does your persona affect the quality of your deliberations?
- 1.1.7 What are the three main critical thinking virtues?
- 1.2 Chapter 2: Making Reflective Moves
- 1.2.1 Understand and explicate terms and phrases such as: presumption, conversational implicature, burden of proof, rationales, claims, and logic chopping
- 1.2.2 Explain and be prepared to distinguish arguments from explanations.
- 1.2.3 Review the key features of basic reconstructions and be prepared to give a basic reconstruction of a short argument.
- 1.2.4 Review the principles of fair interpretation.
- 1.2.5 Understand the difference between Conversational Interpretive Strategies and Rationale Engagement Strategies and be prepared to apply them in particular cases.
- 1.3 Chapter 3: Sherlock’s Logic – Deductive and Inductive Inferences in Everyday Reflection
- 1.3.1 Understand and explicate the terms and phrases such as:
- 1.3.2 Within categorical logic, understand and apply terms such as: contradictories, contraries, subcontraries, subalterns.
- 1.3.3 Within propositional logic, understand the main components of the logical system (claims or propositions, connectives, parentheses, brackets, and braces), the five main valid argument patterns, and how the valid argument patterns determine validity.
- 1.3.4 In propositional logic, apply the valid argument patterns to simple formalized arguments to determine validity.
- 1.3.5 From the part of the chapter on induction, describe the difference between inductive argument structures and deductive ones. In what situations would one choose inductive reasoning over deductive? What is a hasty generalization?
- 1.3.6 Explain the nature and structure of analogical arguments. How do they persuade?
- 1.4 Chapter 4: Tell me Why . . .Or How . . . Explanation and Causation in Reflective Practice
- 1.4.1 Give examples of the wide range of types of explanatory questions.
- 1.4.2 What are the main features of good explanations?
- 1.4.3 What are the competing explanatory accounts of the redness of Mars?
- 1.4.4 What’s the difference between a “why” question and a “how” question?
- 1.4.5 Do explanations need to connect to “ultimate purposes”? Be prepared to present both points of view.
- 1.4.6 Can you see “causation”?
- 1.4.7 What’s the difference between a necessary and sufficient condition?
- 1.4.8 Identify four of Mill’s methods and be prepared to explain each.
- 1.4.9 What is “inverse” and “direct” variation?
- 1.4.10 What is a “correlation coefficient”?
- 1.4.11 What is the fallacy of “complex cause”? “common cause”?
- 1.5 Chapter 5: “We Don’t Get Fooled Again” – Uses and Misuses of Numerical and Statistical Information
- 1.5.1 What are some of the difficulties that people face when trying to use and discuss numeric and statistical information?
- 1.5.2 What is “innumeracy”?
- 1.5.3 Idenify the main kinds of problems understanding and thinking about numeric and statistical information, including problems of context, large numbers, compounding, linearity, baseline, surveys and sampling, odds, probability, correlation, and cause.
- 1.5.4 Why is it that wasting a billion dollars might not be such a big deal for the Federal Government?
- 1.5.5 Identify and explain these terms: representative sample, depressive realism, sample space, sampling error, the law of large numbers, gambler’s fallacy, bell curve, multiple regression analysis,
- 1.5.6 What is the Sports Illustrated jinx? Do you think it’s real? Why or why not?
- 1.6 Chapter 6 – The Way Up is the Way Down – Thinking Through Complexity.
- 1.6.1 Give an example of how sciences simplify things to build models and be prepared to say something about the limits of a simple model of causality.
- 1.6.2 What is network theory?
- 1.6.3 What does “six degrees of separation” mean?
- 1.6.4 Complex systems: inerrelatedness, 1965 New York City power outage (sig. of), coupling/decoupling.
- 1.6.5 Be prepared to give your own examples of complex networks.
- 1.6.6 Buffering, redundant systems, pos/neg feedback (examples of).
- 1.6.7 The Beer Game (sig. of), Partner system for police (sig. of).
- 1.6.8 Political ideologies as clusters in a political network.
- 1.6.9 Gottman’s work, significance, critical variables, Intransparency.
- 1.6.10 Dorner’s work. Characteristics of good managers
- 1.6.11 Chaos vs. Complexity. Characteristics of chaotic system. The weather.
- 1.6.12 Practical lessons from chaos theory for critical thinking.
- 1.6.13 Thin-slicing. Sig. of.
- 1.6.14 Intuition, sig. and problems of.
- 1.1 Chapter 1: Thinking about Thinking
Critical Thinking Study Question Collaboration
Chapter 1: Thinking about Thinking
What are some of the opportunities and obstacles of trying to become a better critical thinking in the information age?
The information age provides many obstacles and opportunities for becoming a better critical thinker. With the information age knowledge is more readily available and ways of research (gaining knowledge) have improved. With more education and greater availability of knowledge come more knowledge workers and more data to study. Thus, many kinds of research have become less expensive and once again the "production" of information benefits. However, this "knowledge industry" is attempting to answer some very difficult questions and often falls short. This idea of fast results, due to the demand for more information, proves to be one of the downfalls with the information age. Things have become oversimplified, largely by the media, in attempts to keep up with all of the information. With this oversimplification, information has become distorted. Therefore, despite the progress of research, the accuracy and truth in information is much harder to sort out. -Allie
The "information explosion" has lead to an increase in the amount of data we have on "social phenomena such as health, safety and economic well being" due to new technology that provide cheaper and faster methods of obtaining information. The increase of information, however, increases ambiguity. "The research results and theoris generated by the explosion of the knowledge industry do not always cohere or lead to stable theories" --Katie F
How has the progress of research and "knowledge work" contributed to and complicated the pursuit of truth?
Understand and explicate terms and phrases such as: the Mozart effect, birth order theories, thinking in stereo, emotional flooding, and terms related to describing reflective style and persona.
Mozart Effect: In 1993, a study was published that showed that listening to 10 minutes of Mozart increased one's scores on spatial aptitude test. The results implied that people could get as much as a 9 point boost on an IQ test from listening to Mozart. The controversy is over whether or not this "mozart effect" is scientifically accurate. It makes a good case study of the information explosion, hilighting the role of content producers (researcher and marketers) in complicating the task of making good rflective choices. -Nicole
Birth order theories: the idea that the order in which siblings are born affects their personalities including school performance, intelligence, sexual orientation, allergies, and civil disobedience. For example, first borns tend to be more conservative and obedient of authority than last borns, who tend to be rebellious. - Kat
Thinking in stereo: thinking about your thoughts, thinking about whether this thought is relative (the meta level), and asking questions about the object of thought (making the object of thought an object of thought)-Nicole
Emotional Flooding: When studying arguments between men and women, men are more likely to concede but believe they have actually won the argument rather than handle the emotional aspect of the argument. Emotional flooding is when arguments incorporate emotion. Gender factors into how the argument is handled. -Kendra
Reflective style: Reflective thinkers think “in stereo”, they are not only aware of what is being discussed, they are aware of how the topic is being addressed. Your unique approach to reflective discussion might be called your reflective style. -Nicole
What is epistemology? What are some of the values and limitations of logic in becoming a better thinker? What is the relationship between logic and good thinking?
Epistemology: the study of the origins and grounds for knowledge - Kat
There are several values and limitations of logic in becoming a better thinker. Some values are the precision and rigor which logic allows in arguments, which are essential portions of good, truth seeking, and reflective discussion. Ultimately, this leads to better thinking. However, some limitations of logic include cultural boundaries because the definition of logic can vary. Likewise, these differences, both in culture and definition, require interpretation to understand and cannot be settled with logic alone. Thus, thinking logically, or "rationally," as well as "reasonably," leads to good thinking. -Allie
What does it mean to make your thought an object of thought?
To think "in stereo" on a meta-level by asking critical questions about what you are thinking about - Kat
Making one's thought an object of thought means to practice thinking "in stereo." That is, to include influences, explanations, motivations, and interpersonal effects in one's thinking about whatever is being discussed. -Allie
To, in simple terms, think of your thoughts and the thoughts of others on a wide scale as you create and have a functional conversation. -Rachel
How can we describe thinking in ways that seem compatible with what we are learning from research on cognition and social conflict?
NOT ON THE EXAM!
The FMRI allows us to observe changes in brain function that are connected to changes in blood flow within the brain. If you ask a variety of subjects the same kinds of questions and notice that different or overlapping areas of each subjects brain lights up, you might be able to make inferences about how thinking is or is not localized in the brain. This information can help us speculate about how the work of thinking id divided and executed in a conscience brain. Not only does there appear to be no logic center of the brain, but there appears to be no one center of brain activity associated with cognitive functioning in general. In actual argumentative discussion, many areas of the brain are activated, including regions of the prefrontal lobe which regulate emotions. There is some evidence that the left side of the prefrontal lobe is more involved with reasoning than the right, and that area is also more active during experiences of positive emotions. Negative emotions can impair cognitive functions, and research has corroborated this. Good reflective practitioners should be aware of the way emotions are triggered in themselves and others during discussions and that attending to and responding to emotions during a discussion can affect the quality of that discussion.---Erin Conklin
What is a persona and how does your persona affect the quality of your deliberations?
A dimension of our reflective style concerns the persona we tend to adopt in reflective discussions. Some of us “hold forth” and like to be the center of attention while we elaborate lengthy positions on the topic. Others like to “hold the fort,” defending a view in spite of evident weaknesses pointed out by others. --Cierra
Perhaps your persona is listening carefully for much of the discussion but then interjecting a particularly insightful or disarming question or series of questions. You persona may be the person who tries to put pieces of others’ view together in a new view, or maybe you are “the bystander,” who primarily observes but participates through body language. Simply, persona is the role we play in discussions. Persona affects the quality of our discussions because it hopes to mask some of our true feelings and emotions in order to satisfy the demands of the situation or the environment. Thus, it does not allow us to represent our inner personality and who we really are. Think of persona like a mask one wears or façade. ---Cierra
What are the three main critical thinking virtues?
The three ideals are: "sympathetic understanding", "seeking knowledge", and "inviting appraisal." - Kat
Sympathetic Understanding- enter into empathetic understanding, asking questions, repeat the person's positions back to them to make sure they understand what they are saying, as well as yourself.
Putting the viewpoints of others in your own words. Reconstructing ideas of others, entertaining opposing ideas. This is dificult, because we fear by sypathetically understanding the views of others we may "diminish the strength of our own convictions"
-Katie F
Seeking Knowledge- Stating you don't know something or questioning that something is wrong, or intruducing that you want to know something more about the topic.
Asking the three questions "what is known?" "who knows it?" and "what is knowable?" The first two can be answered by research, the third requires we recognize the limits of seeking knowledge, especially on complex issues.
-Katie F
Inviting Appraisal- Asking "Do you agree?" etc. -Steph
Being open to critical appraisals-both in giving and recieving them. Welcoming re-examination of your own views is a part of inviting appraisal. Katie F
Chapter 2: Making Reflective Moves
Understand and explicate terms and phrases such as: presumption, conversational implicature, burden of proof, rationales, claims, and logic chopping
Presumption: a commonly held belief or a claim that is taken or implied to be true within the context of the deliberation; determined by the interests and sociological and historical factors of the individuals participating in the deliberation; presumptions should be questioned but not immediately (it will kill the conversation)
Conversational implicature: the idea that words alone do not determine what is actually being conveyed; we imply more than we actually say; do not assume that someone is implying something - seek clarification
Burden of proof: the obligation of a speaker (or a writer) to provide credible reasons for the claims he or she makes; it can shift like a tennis match; the shifts depend on whether the individuals accept, modify, or reject a claim
Rationales: premises or reasons that imply or explain a conclusion
Claims: statements that are either true or false
Logic chopping: when a person strips another's speech down to only the main points and ignores everything else (context, the speaker's tone/feelings/experiences) - Kat
Explain and be prepared to distinguish arguments from explanations.
Arguments: when the conclusion is in doubt; justify beliefs by asking the question "Why should I believe this?"
Explanations: when the conclusion is not in doubt; show how something came to be/the cause of something by asking the question "Why did this happen?" - Kat
Arguments: Evidences-->Belief.
Trying to establish the truth of a claim you are unsure about/you are justifying a belief and the rationale is an argument. --Cierra
Explanations: Cause-->Fact
When you explain some conclusion…you are giving an explanation, not an argument. You are trying to understand how the conclusion came about or why it is the case.
Trying to understand something you already know to be the case/you are trying to understand a face and the rationale you offer is an explanation. --Cierra
Review the key features of basic reconstructions and be prepared to give a basic reconstruction of a short argument.
A reconstruction represents, in a concise fashion, the rationales in a piece of writing or a speach. (Rationales have reasons and explanations) The goal of a reconstruction is to check understanding. The Steps are as follows:
1.Identify the general conclusion
State the simple conclusion and then refine.
It is usually stated in your own words.
2.Identify and organize sub-arguments
What is a reason for what?
Everything should point to something else as a reason or explanation for that view.
3. Write up the reconstruction in a good, clear, logical prose.
Keep your personal views and opinions out of the reconstruction.
--Steph
Review the principles of fair interpretation.
Reconstructions depend on interpretation, as well as original text and key points; there is also an element of inference involved.
Principle of Charity: expresses the obligation to present the view or argument of the author in its best light; the best representation is more important than determining how well the author understood or adequately represented his or her view
Principle of Fidelity: exposes the importance of being "faithful" to the text; avoid making inferences about the author's meaning without good textual and contextual evidence
Principle of Inclusion: emphasizes that the gol of a reconstruction is to incorporate all of the relevant information into an argument; the core of an argument is based on as much information as possible
Note: Good interpretation requires various moral virtues. Also, a common interpretive problem is "logic chopping." -Allie
Understand the difference between Conversational Interpretive Strategies and Rationale Engagement Strategies and be prepared to apply them in particular cases.
Conversational Interpretive Strategies (CIS) - the dynamics of the group/people; the "moves" you need to/should make in a reflective deliberation
Rationale Engagement Strategies (RES) - concerns the actual reasoning of the deliberation; there are three ways to do this:
1. Questioning the truth of premises 2. Questioning the connection between the premises and conclusion 3. Reframing the argument
- Kat
Conversation Interpretive Strategies include:
-State your view
-Questions people about their views, invite people into the conversation
-Paraphrase their/your view back to them
-Monitor your nonverbal behaviour, express your reactions
-Show awarenes of similarities and differences of particpants and clarify the differences
-Nicole
Chapter 3: Sherlock’s Logic – Deductive and Inductive Inferences in Everyday Reflection
Understand and explicate the terms and phrases such as:
deductive argument, inductive argument, validity, the Principle of Induction, categorical logic, propositional logic, the square of opposition, truth tables
Deductive argument - used when the conclusion has absolute certainty; structure is as follows:
1. If A, then B
2. A
C. B
Inductive argument - used to show the probability/likelihood that the conclusion is true; often utilizes past experiences, memories, and patterns (ex: the sun rising every day)
- Kat
I agree with kat. great explanation, just like what we were taught in class. -Rachel
Within categorical logic, understand and apply terms such as: contradictories, contraries, subcontraries, subalterns.
Contradictories: have opposite truth values. If one is true, the other must be false Contraries: cannot both be true, but can both be false Subcontraries: cannot both be false, but can both be true. Subalterns: From a true A or E proposition, you can infer a true I or O proposition. - Erin C.
Within propositional logic, understand the main components of the logical system (claims or propositions, connectives, parentheses, brackets, and braces), the five main valid argument patterns, and how the valid argument patterns determine validity.
In propositional logic, apply the valid argument patterns to simple formalized arguments to determine validity.
From the part of the chapter on induction, describe the difference between inductive argument structures and deductive ones. In what situations would one choose inductive reasoning over deductive? What is a hasty generalization?
Hasty generalization-arguments that make a generalization on the basis of inadequate evidence. Erin C.
Explain the nature and structure of analogical arguments. How do they persuade?
Analogical arguments are arguments that try to convince an audience to adopt a particular viewpoint about an issue (disputed case) because it is similar to another issue that they already hold a viewpoint on, or a justified belief ("analogue")The form of an analogical argument is this: 1) Give examples that prove that the disputed case resembles the analogue 2) Justify the beliefs about the analogue C) It is justified to then hold similar beliefs about the disputed case They persuade by using 2 principles (norms of rationality) that deal with thinking about similarities. 1)Principle of Induction - nature has uniformities, 2) Claim that we should think about "like cases alike" -Katie G.
Chapter 4: Tell me Why . . .Or How . . . Explanation and Causation in Reflective Practice
Give examples of the wide range of types of explanatory questions.
Explanatory questions are "WHY?" questions: ·Why do I feel the way I do? ·Why do humans laugh? ·What is Mars red? Something needs explaining. The first thing to notice about explanations is that they arise out of real doubt about how something works, comes about, or fits together. Nothing needs explaining until someone starts wondering about things in one of these ways. So explanation starts with a psychological condition of doubt about the basis of our experience or belief. -Cierra Moore
What are the main features of good explanations?
The main features of good explanations are clarity, understanding, and examples to show proof of understanding. -Rachel The main features of good explanations are: 1) Internal Coherence - they have to make sense on their own terms, avoid contradiction, and are plausibly related. 2) External Coherence - must be consistent and compatible with our background knowledge of the world. 3)Testability - done by making predictions about the explanation, and then setting up a situation where the prediction can be either confirmed or disconfirmed. ex) Retro Diction - predictions about the past. 4) Satisfy Reasonable Doubt - very subjective, must ask yourself if the explanation you are considering leaves you with unanswered questions that it shuold have been able to answer -Katie G.
What are the competing explanatory accounts of the redness of Mars?
1) One explanation, which is now being challenged, is that the iron oxide comes from water interacting with iron in the planet’s rocks. This requires us to believe that Mars was covered in water early on in its formation. This may also explain the long, empty channels that cover large areas of the planet and inspire bad Martian science fiction novels. Water suffused with iron deposits might have gotten into the hydro cycle, dispersing iron oxides in raindrops all over the planet.
(MORE FOR THE FIRST THEORY-->)It suggests that at one mechanism explains two things (the presence of iron oxide and the channels). It relies on a chemical process that we know about and it explains the dispersal of iron oxide around the planet. The weakness is, of course, that we don’t know if there was really an abundance of water on Mars. So this explanation needs a verifying experience to confirm it. Otherwise, it might be a case of explaining the “obscure with the obscure”.-Nicole R.
2) NASA scientist Albert Yen is offering a newer, alterative explanation. Using some of the data from the 1997 pathfinder mission, Yen noticed that Martian soil, not just the loose dust on top of it, is also full of iron, suggesting that impacts from meteorites could be responsible for the amount of iron on the planet.
a.The interesting thing about Yen’s explanation is that it doesn’t require the presence of water. In an experiment in the year 2000, he placed a small chuck of labradorite, a mineral commonly found on Martian soil, in a test tube, simulated the Martian atmosphere inside the test tube and bombarded it with UV radiation, which is strong on Mars. After a week, he found the presence of “super oxide ions,” which could cause iron oxidation without water. -Cierra Moore
(MORE FOR THIS SECOND THEORY-->) The process Yen proposed may not work quickly enough to accout for the abundance of iron oxide on Mars, so it could be that both processes were at work, one involving water and one without. Niether of these explanations is sufficiently strong to resolve doubt about the process that produced iron oxides that make Mars red. Together, the two explanations migh be stronger than either alone. Another interesting feature of the second explanation is its use of experimental simulation. If you want to posit physical proccesses that canno tbe observed, in this case because they happened in the past, you might try simulating the process experimentally. -Nicole R
What’s the difference between a “why” question and a “how” question?
It is the way you try to understand or explain a question. Many scientists will view questions as "how" questions and answer them using facts and so on. Many philosophers will view questions as "why" questions and answer them using reason. For example, trying to explain the purpose of human life on earth. Scientists would look for how explnations about how humans got on earth and philosophers would use why explanations for why humans are on earth. -Kendra
Do explanations need to connect to “ultimate purposes”? Be prepared to present both points of view.
Found in Section 4.4: Explanations and Ultimate Purposes People who believe explanations need to connect to "ultimate purposes": people that look towards sciencec, religion, culture, ect. as sources for their explanations, People who believe explanations don't need to connect to "ultimate purposes": focus more on their sense of their own purpose or goals This part of the book was rather difficult for me to understand, but this is what I got out of it. I recommend reading it over though and adjusting my answer. -Nicole R.
Can you see “causation”?
You can't see causes, but you can assign causes to events on the basis of how we believe events are related. We use the word cause when perceptions reliably and habitually follow one another. - Katie G.
You can infer caustaion. You see a series of events and make connections. It is the subjective side of things. Infer against a theoretical framework. When evaluating causal explanation you sort out what you see and what you infer. -Nicole R.
What’s the difference between a necessary and sufficient condition?
Necessary Condition - A condition that must be present in order for the consequent condition to occur. Sufficient Condition - A condition that makes a consequent condition possible, not the only possible cause. - Katie G.
Identify four of Mill’s methods and be prepared to explain each.
There are 5 Methods that attempt to distinguish causal factors from causal patterns. They are 1)Method of Agreement - There is a common factor that achieves a consequent condition, and they always agree. 2) Method of Difference - When an antecendent and a consequent are present adn with the removal of one, a different consequent condition occurs. 3) This is a combination of the Methods of Agreement and Difference, "Distinct Method" (?)- when you compare results of each method against each other and the difference you notice will become the consequent condition. 4) Method of Residues - When you have a set of antecedent conditions that you believe are causally related to consequent conditions, and you remove one of the antecedent conditions, you are left to observe what happens to the consequent condition. 5) Method of Concomitant Variation - when you have a set of antecedent conditions, and if you increase or decrease the amount of influence they have in a situation, and you observe a change, then you may assume that the antecedent and consequent conditions are related causally and can affect each other in the final consequent condition. - Katie G.
What is “inverse” and “direct” variation?
Inverse Variation - As an antecedent condition increases, a consequent condition decreases. Direct Variation - As an antecedent condition increases, a consequent condition increases. - Katie G.
What is a “correlation coefficient”?
usually designated by a variable "r" Often reported in summaries of research data
-sophisticated way of quantifuing the strength of correlation in either single factor or mulitple factor analyses. ~Isabella Kea
What is the fallacy of “complex cause”? “common cause”?
Complex cause – oversimplifying; reducing the number of causes to one or two (ex-people are poor because they do not work hard)
Common cause – taking some factor as the cause for another when a third factor is really causing both (ex-the changes in the institution of marriage cause both violence in movies and divorce and promiscuity; the violence in movies does not cause the divorce and promiscuity) - Kat
Chapter 5: “We Don’t Get Fooled Again” – Uses and Misuses of Numerical and Statistical Information
What are some of the difficulties that people face when trying to use and discuss numeric and statistical information?
Numeric and statistical data have a particularly powerful tendency to deceive or mislead, so we need to develop some skills to avoid being “fooled again” by them.
Some people are justifiably reluctant to bring so called “hard facts” into a casual reflective conversation because it may seem too confrontational, or they think it makes them look like “know-it-alls.” We all know the stereotype of the person who always seems to want to shut down discussions with some “fact” or another. SO, we might overcompensate by becoming reluctant to introduce even reliable information into discussion for fear of looking like the stereotype.
You might even be concerned about how useful or reliable that isolate fact is. Was that 20% or 30%? Who produced the data? Etc.
Still others are a bit too quick to try to shut down discussions by introducing some purportedly “conclusive fact.” It is hard to know how to respond to quantitative data in ordinary conversation, especially when we suspect, but cannot prove, that the person using it has oversimplified it.
Also, people shy away from numbers because they are not confident enough about the underlying mathematical knowledge needed to interpret them competently. --Cierra Moore
What is “innumeracy”?
lacking knowledge in relationship to math and numbers. -Rachel
Even people who are otherwise well educated have serious difficulties making some kinds of judgments about numbers, statistics, and probability. Mathematician John Allen Paulos calls this inability to think about numeric information “innumeracy.” --Cierra Moore
Idenify the main kinds of problems understanding and thinking about numeric and statistical information, including problems of context, large numbers, compounding, linearity, baseline, surveys and sampling, odds, probability, correlation, and cause.
Baseline-a rule, often a definition of a measure, which serves as the standard for comparison with respect to that measure -the baseline for traffic fatalities would have been flat except for the increase in traffic volume and speed there was no upward or downward trend in fatalities except for that of traffic volume
~Isabella Kea
Problems of context:the way we “frame” a number or give context for it helps determine how it will appear and be remembered and often times writers give you accurate but only partial information, a good reflective reader should look at numbers that are presented and see if there are hidden relationships that can be teased out by simple calculations
Large numbers: people have a particularly difficult time being critical about numeric information when the quantities are either very big or very small, at some point in our mathematical education we learderd that large and small numbers can be represented by scientific notation and sometimes we can be mislead or feel uncompelled to really understand these numbers, making your own calculations (whether the number are big or not) will help you to avoid being taken in by sloppy or deceptive authors
Compounding: whenever you add to some amount by a percentage at intervals over time, an operation that can make a numeric relationship non-linear, people often underestimate the effects of this (ex. A child who has won some competition is given the choice of a million dollars or a 30 day income paid daily starting at one penny and doubling each day, the latter would actually yield more but the child would choose the former because of compounding confusion)
Linearity: Linear: change in x and y values remains constant Nonlinear: slope will change as you move along the line
-Nicole R.
Why is it that wasting a billion dollars might not be such a big deal for the Federal Government?
The governements budget is so large that a billion dollars works out to less than one percent of the budget. It only sounds like such a huge amount to us because our psychology is not adapetd to the larger context. -Cassy
Identify and explain these terms: representative sample, depressive realism, sample space, sampling error, the law of large numbers, gambler’s fallacy, bell curve, multiple regression analysis,
representative sample- a sample is representative if every relevant difference in the sample has an equal chance of appearing in the total population
depressive relism- a hypothesis that depressed people have more accurate assessments of a wide range of probabilities
sample space- the number of ways a that some event can occur
Law of Large Numbers- says that in repeated, independant trials with the same probability of success in each trial, the percentage of successes is increasingly likely to be close to the chance of success as the number of trials increases
Gambler's Fallacy- commited when seperate events are treated seperately; ex. the flip of a coin is an independent event so the odds of subsequent flips are not affected by the odds of previous flips
bell curve- the "normal distribution curve"; represents a funtion that fits any randomly selected sample of observations; the observations cluster around the average of the observations
multiple regression analysis- measures the relative weight of multiple independent variables, not just one, on some dependent variable -Cassy
What is the Sports Illustrated jinx? Do you think it’s real? Why or why not?
The belief is that appearing on the cover of Sports Illustrated is bad luck and results in demonstratably worse athletic performance. One of the problems is that those put on the cover have usually outperformed others in their sport and the chance of them falling backwards in performance is very high. -Cassy
Chapter 6 – The Way Up is the Way Down – Thinking Through Complexity.
Give an example of how sciences simplify things to build models and be prepared to say something about the limits of a simple model of causality.
Baseball flight-we assume angle, that the ball is a perfect sphere, that there is no wind resistance Lets the experimenter know exact numbers and figures for certain aspect of the experiment being carried out. ~Isabella Kea
What is network theory?
any collection of things as represented by dots on a page "nodes" the relations between the nodes are the lines called "links" togehter they mak a network consisting of strong and weak links ~Isabella Kea
What does “six degrees of separation” mean?
Links, nodes, “weak link” (significance of), Konigsburg Bridge Problem, Baltimore syphilis epidemic, competing theories, network theory approach, Colorado Springs epidemic, possibilities for intervention, Hush Puppies, sig. of===
Anyone of us is related to any other human being by an average of six intermediate steps ~Isabella Kea
Inerrelatedness-main characteristic of a complex system; the nodes on a network representation of the system, the more ways that more nodes can affect other nodes, the more interrelated a system is
1965 NYC- systems experienced overloads when part of the system was confined ex. of how interrelatedness cam have a negative affect on a system
Coupling-system can be more tightly or loosely coupled depending upon the degree to which a failure in one part of a system affets another
Decoupling- results in the containment of failure in a system ~Isabella Kea
Be prepared to give your own examples of complex networks.
Social networks, work networks, facebook, myspace ~Isabella Kea
Buffering, redundant systems, pos/neg feedback (examples of).
Buffering/redundant system- back up systems the act of preventing a breakdown/failure Power goes out--generator goes on
Pos/neg feedback- pos. change in one part of the system amplifies change in another part variable in the system neg. has a buffering effect on a system pos. and neg. feedback loops are really just direct and inverse correlations w/ an amplifying effect thrown to reflect the non-linear character of the relationship. pos. tends to take a system out of equilibrium while neg. tends to bring it back into equalibrium. ~Isabella Kea
The Beer Game (sig. of), Partner system for police (sig. of).
Beer Game-Increase in orders required increase in production...to manage the inventories in a way that takes feedback loops into account ~Isabella Kea
Political ideologies as clusters in a political network.
Gottman’s work, significance, critical variables, Intransparency.
Couple interation-facial and body language
- found critical variables that help predict patterns of interactions that eventually lead to devorce
Critical variables=indicators that signify the possibility of a phase transition in the system
Intransparency- an obstacle to managing complex systems involving the inability to see critical variables or indicator variables and know the difference between them (We cannot always determine from ones outside behavior what one's actual beliefs or mental state are/is) ~Isabella Kea
Dorner’s work. Characteristics of good managers
Created computer stimulated environments and observed the behaviors of human participants who tried to control them.
Characteristics of good management- -made more decisions -aware that they had to affect several things and control for the unwelcomed/unintended effects of changes -recognized employment and economic productivity as important variables -aware that solving one problem may require working on others -generated and tested hypotheseses ~Isabella Kea
Chaos vs. Complexity. Characteristics of chaotic system. The weather.
Characteristics of chaotic system -non-periodicity -non-linear relationships -sensitivity to initial conditions/preturbances ~Isabella Kea
Practical lessons from chaos theory for critical thinking.
-recognize chaos and get out of the way -recognize oversimplification as a necessary condition of human thought -recognize limits in our ability to know the cause of specific events that are effects of chaotic systems
~Isabella Kea
Thin-slicing. Sig. of.
-sometimes we should listen to our intuitions and snap judgements -the ability to make a reliable judgement about a complex situation on the basis of a small sample of its activity without analysis
Make judgements of people by first impression* ~Isabella Kea
Intuition, sig. and problems of.
-mode of knowing -there is good evidence that some of our intuitions are extremely efficient and very reliable in helping us think and respond to situations
-stereotypes, things involving: wants, desires, and fears can't be trusted -could give implicit associations too great a role in one's thinking ~Isabella Kea
What do researchers on socio-linguistics and conflict tell us about the role of gender in deliberative communication?